The structural tailwind
Nearshoring in Baja California
Baja California leads Mexico in export-manufacturing (IMMEX) plants, with roughly 17.5% of the national total, and industry is about 45% of the state's GDP.
The advantage is proximity and speed: same-day trucking to the US border, and clusters in medical devices and aerospace moving the mix toward higher-value work.
Why production keeps moving here
- Baja California leads Mexico in export-manufacturing (IMMEX) plants, with roughly 17.5% of the national total, and industry, the secondary sector, is about 45% of the state's GDP. That base is what makes it the country's default landing spot for advanced manufacturing.
- The advantage is proximity and speed. Same-day trucking runs from the state to the US border, so plants near Tijuana and the San Diego border region can feed US supply chains on a schedule that overseas factories cannot match, backed by the Port of Ensenada for ocean freight.
- Investment is largely reinvestment. Manufacturing has drawn about $16.5 billion in foreign direct investment over the past decade, with expansions largely led by companies already established in the state rather than first-time entrants.
- The mix is shifting upward. Clusters in medical devices and aerospace, anchored in Tijuana and Mexicali, keep moving the work toward higher-value, more technical production.
Cooling, but the trend holds
- Growth cooled in 2024. The state economy was essentially flat after 3.5% growth in 2023, under US tariff pressure and a softer auto sector.
- Where it is headed. Nearshoring remains the structural tailwind: the proximity advantage and the medical-device and aerospace clusters keep drawing expansions, even as year-to-year growth moves with the US cycle.